Tag Archives: BigLaw

2023 and Big Law’s Accelerating Contraction

It was refreshing to hear Jonathan Harmon, Chairman of 189 year-old Richmond-based McGuireWoods, declare last week what most of his BigLaw peers are or should be thinking:  “We are looking to grow and aggressively looking to talk to firms who are of the mindset.  I believe that the market’s consolidating and that you’re going to have to have scale.”  See McGuireWoods ‘Aggressively’ Seeks Merger Partner, Chairman Says.   The extent to which McGuireWoods will be successful in its efforts to find firms to acquire or with which to merge remains to be seen, but we have no doubt that they are more likely to be successful than firms waiting for opportunities to come in over the transom.  Mergers and acquisitions are inevitably fraught with obstacles and challenges, and thorough market due diligence of merger and acquisition opportunities obviously maximizes the potential to find suitable partners while minimizing the risk of stagnation and failure.  As Harmon elaborated: “Finding the right firm to acquire, merge with, is hard,” recollecting an acquisition a few years ago that turned out to be a “disaster” as the new attoneys “weren’t culturally aligned” with the venerable Richmond firm.  Id.  You have to be aggressive, you have to expect that most of your conversations will not lead to a marriage, and accept that nothing ventured usually equals nothing gained and a passive approach is less likely to yield positive results.  As Harmon put it, “I’m more frank about it.  If you’re coy and you’re pretending ‘Hey, I don’t want to date,’ you may not get one.”  Id.  

The good news for Harmon and like-minded firm leaders is that there is a substantial array of attractive merger candidates for robust and healthy firms.  As to McGuireWoods, with gross revenues rising 16% over the last five years to its current level of just south of $1B and profits per equity partner increasing at an even faster rate over the same period to just south of $2M, there can be no doubt that they will be seriously considered as a merger partner by more big firms whether those firms choose to remain coy about their respective appetites for exploring or not.  Moreover, as the geopolitical climate continues to feel unstable and financial markets remain volatile and at levels substantially off their highs of two years ago, major players are likely to be less brash and confident about their ability to thrive on their own or remain competitive merely through organic or individual or small group lateral growth.  Finally, law firms are continually facing new competition from non-attorneys operating ventures seeking to provide comparable legal services at lower rates.  See id.   All of which will lead to more firms talking to one another, and more mergers and acquisitions. See also Law firm mergers gained steam in 2022, with more on the way in 2023, and Wake Up Call: Law Firm Mergers Apt to Rise in 2023, Report Says.  And see McKinsey’s 10 Principles for Successful Law Firm Mergers, which succinctly notes as follows:  “Market forces have led to the consolidation of a number of professional services sectors. In accounting, for example, the Big Four account for more than 60% of the U.S. market. There is good reason for this: research has shown that across industries, organizations with a systemic M&A strategy delivered better shareholder returns. Organizations that relied solely on organic growth, on the other hand, performed relatively poorly.  Legal services are not immune to this trend: consolidation is well under way, albeit not to the same extent as in other sectors. In 2017, the largest five law firms by revenue accounted for 8% of the American Lawyer 200 revenue pool. By the end of 2021, that figure had risen to 14%… [A]s market pressures intensify and the first $10 billion firms emerge, the case for M&A is becoming stronger.”  Id.

So excellent work, Jonathan Harmon, and kudos to you for being so refreshingly straightforward.  We are certain that McGuireWoods’ future is bright, and are on board to assist you and like-minded BigLaw leaders in helping to take your extraordinary firms to even greater heights!

 

Covid 19, Fall 2021 and BigLaw 2

Since Hanover Legal’s founding in 2000, we have together experienced traumas that have shaken the foundations of BigLaw including the bursting of the dot-com bubble, 9/11, Enron, WorldCom, a war in Iraq and a global financial crisis — but none has impacted BigLaw like Covid 19.

When Covid made its ugly debut a year and a half ago, BigLaw’s reaction was predictable; fat cutting in the form of hiring freezes and layoffs, shedding real estate, re-prioritizing practice strengths and reinvigorized courting of old reliable and potential paying clients. No pundit however imagined that the following year and a half would see record BigLaw revenue and profits and firms leaner, meaner, with more cash-in-hand then ever before.  See, for example:  https://www.berdonllp.com/the-pandemic-paradox-law-firm-profits-rise-despite-covid-19/.;  and see https://www.law.com/americanlawyer/2021/01/25/the-lessons-and-implications-of-big-laws-stunning-2020-profitability/,  and https://www.economist.com/business/2021/07/15/americas-elite-law-firms-are-booming.

Moreover, BigLaw attorneys have been happier and more productive then ever as well.  By and large they are comfortable using the various video-meeting platforms and  don’t miss business travel and schlepping into the office every day.   And why would they?  Video-meetings are more cost and time efficient and pose no risk of contracting highly contagious and potentially lethal diseases, and what can beat working from home? And if any attorney is unhappy with their current firm for whatever reason, the cherry on the cake is that lateral hiring is booming .  See: https://www.law360.com/articles/1400812/lateral-hiring-plunged-in-2020-but-strong-rebound-underway,  and https://www.americanbar.org/groups/journal/articles/2021/new-data-shows-lateral-associate-hiring-happening-across-the-board/, and https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/surging-in-big-cities-lateral-hiring-is-a-hunt-for-higher-rates.

So as we ask the age-old question “Who knew?” we express our continuing gratitude for being privileged to remain on this journey with our BigLaw clients and reiterate our commitment to assist in any way while we navigate during these interesting times.

Wishes and Predictions

While we are all relishing our last day of this holiday season and gearing up for 2019 and the inevitable challenges the new year will bring, we thought it may be worthwhile to offer a few predictions as to the landscape of BigLaw during the year to come:

  • At least one AmLaw 50 firm will dissolve or be acquired;
  • At least two AmLaw 100 firms will dissolve or be acquired;
  • There will be a record number of lateral partner moves among the AmLaw 100 firms;
  • There will be a record number of law firm mergers among the AmLaw 200 firms;
  • All but one of the current AmLaw 50 firms will post increased revenue over 2018;
  • 48 of the current AmLaw 50 firms will post increased profitability over 2018;
  • AmLaw 50 firms will see record numbers of partner departures leaving to join boutiques or start boutiques of their own;
  • No transatlantic merger of Global 50 firms will be consummated.

With those predictions on the table, we look forward to reviewing each of our major firms’ reports of their own 2018 performance and tracking their respective performances in 2019 — wishing all of them the best of luck as the gun goes off bright and early tomorrow morning and while we commence our own 19th year of offering support to their attorneys and managing partners as they face their inevitable challenges over the course of the upcoming twelve months!