As the world struggles to cope with the Coronavirus pandemic and societies world-wide adapt in order to minimize risk of infection while remaining as productive as possible under the circumstances, most major law firms continue to recruit. What has changed primarily during this highly infectious crisis is merely the basic mechanics; firms are increasingly opting for telephone interviews instead of in-person meetings.
Perhaps more significantly, law firms like other entities are employing a gamut of strategic approaches to this crisis as in any other crisis; some viewing it as an opportunity to take advantage of diminished competition to recruit even more aggressively and realize gains that may have been unattainable in a relatively calm and stable environment, others plodding forward as if it’s business as usual, while a few more skittish players have paused recruiting altogether promising to reconvene only once the crisis has stabilized. We remind the attorneys we are privileged to represent that while we live in interesting times and how we react during heightened uncertainty can be defining to us, the same applies to the firms they are considering joining, this time of crisis providing a rarely available window for due diligence with respect to a firm’s culture and their way of conducting business.
We urge our law firm and attorney clients alike to proceed with the mindset that this too shall pass, and to resist the temptation to put recruiting on hold. On the contrary, view this as an opportunity to make particularly attractive gains in a largely panicked market that will likely be unavailable again until long after we have come to grips with this crisis as we have all the others that have preceded it.
Since Hanover Legal’s founding is 2000, we have together survived a number of other crises and can fully expect to see a few more once this one too has faded into memory. We assure all of you that as our understanding of the Coronavirus continues to evolve, we will remain on board with you here as well and eager to assist you in any way.
While we are all relishing our last day of this holiday season and gearing up for 2019 and the inevitable challenges the new year will bring, we thought it may be worthwhile to offer a few predictions as to the landscape of BigLaw during the year to come:
At least one AmLaw 50 firm will dissolve or be acquired;
At least two AmLaw 100 firms will dissolve or be acquired;
There will be a record number of lateral partner moves among the AmLaw 100 firms;
There will be a record number of law firm mergers among the AmLaw 200 firms;
All but one of the current AmLaw 50 firms will post increased revenue over 2018;
48 of the current AmLaw 50 firms will post increased profitability over 2018;
AmLaw 50 firms will see record numbers of partner departures leaving to join boutiques or start boutiques of their own;
No transatlantic merger of Global 50 firms will be consummated.
With those predictions on the table, we look forward to reviewing each of our major firms’ reports of their own 2018 performance and tracking their respective performances in 2019 — wishing all of them the best of luck as the gun goes off bright and early tomorrow morning and while we commence our own 19th year of offering support to their attorneys and managing partners as they face their inevitable challenges over the course of the upcoming twelve months!
As we approach the midway point of calendar year 2018, we observe the New York Yankees of BigLaw, Kirkland & Ellis, acquiring Guillermo Stantons ad nauseaum in its quest to pull away from the rest of the world’s major league firms in the revenue rankings. Clearly, K&E is not resting on its laurels in breaking the $3 billion barrier in gross revenue last year after increasing its bottom line to $3.165 billion from $2.65 the previous year, squeaking by now number two Latham in that category by $100 million. See https://www.law.com/2018/03/22/what-is-the-new-normal-for-kirkland-ellis/
To fully appreciate K&E’s laser-focused quest to ascend to the top of the charts, one need only look at the pace at which K&E is achieving its record setting accomplishments, its 2017 gross revenue figure representing a more than 100 percent increase over its pre-recession total in 2007 and 19.4 percent increase from 2016. But perhaps even more remarkably, K&E is simultaneously nearing the top of the BigLaw standings in profitability as well, reporting $4.7 million in profits per equity partner for number three in the nation in that category, topped only by Wachtell and Quinn Emanuel. See https://www.law.com/americanlawyer/2018/03/21/kirkland-overtakes-latham-as-worlds-biggest-firm-by-revenue/.
K&E’s rise to the top has also been facilitated by the resistance of other major firms to change the way they compensate their partners, venerable firms like Cravath, Debevoise & Plimpton and London-based Freshfields maintaining their lockstep compensation structures and their gentility but at the cost of rendering their most productive partners easy prey for K&E, where gentility is generally anathema to the extent it may impede the latter’s ability to compete for revenue streams and maximize profits among their limited echelon of equity partners. See https://www.thelawyer.com/issues/online-march-2016/partnership-prospects-at-kirkland-ellis/
In sum, in this era of free-agency, even leading partners at the elite lockstep firms are switching teams at rates never before seen in the history of BigLaw in order to maximize compensation. While we have no concerns with respect to the ability of those elite lockstep firms to continue to thrive nonetheless in the short term, we expect to see more of those firms modifying their lockstep compensation systems in order to better fend off the attacks of the elite eat-what-you-kill firms on their rainmakers. As to the rest of the BigLaw market, we expect to see continuing contraction at the rate of at least one major firm collapse every year and a half, while managing partners everywhere invest additional resources in eating heavy-hitters elsewhere and simultaneously protecting against the risk of losing their own to the increasingly predatory lateral market.
We at Hanover Legal remain on board consulting with managing partners and attorneys at all levels as to staying alive and thriving in this competitive and dynamic environment.